Executive Brief · One Decision
Johnson County generates approximately 1,200 tons per day of disposable waste. Today, ~80% of it moves to a single private facility: the WM Johnson County Landfill in Shawnee — operating under a 1-year Special Use Permit (issued November 2024, not the standard 4-year term) and projected to reach final capacity between 2037 and 2043. Kansas has no active Waste-to-Energy facility. No new landfill siting is underway. The Mid-America Regional Council's regional capacity study, completed by Burns & McDonnell Engineering in January 2024, named Johnson County's landfill as the region's earliest-closing at the worst-case scenario. The county is in the 15-year planning window — and it is already narrowing.
Under the current system, Johnson County pays approximately $42 per ton (estimated planning basis) to dispose of its waste at the WM landfill — a cost that is rising. Waste Management's national landfill pricing increased 7% in 2024. Kansas has the lowest landfill tipping fees in the United States today, but that advantage disappears the moment the regional market loses its primary facility. When the WM landfill closes, the nearest disposal alternatives are in Lawrence (~40 miles) and Topeka (~65 miles), adding an estimated $80–$120 per ton to the county's disposal cost. There is no contracted alternative and no siting process that could produce one within the 2037 window.
Carbotura offers a 30-year Build-Own-Operate Commercial Off-take Agreement. Carbotura finances all capital — approximately $247.5M for Phase Initial — and operates 3–4 distributed Advanced Circular Manufacturing centers across the county's four quadrants, totaling 400 TPD (Phase Initial) scaling to 1,200 TPD at full expansion. The county's sole financial obligation is the TMC Fee: $100 per ton, escalating at 2.5% per year. In return, the county receives the Circular Royalty — a monthly payment beginning 13 months after the corresponding TMC Fee payment, at 120% of the Year 1 TMC base, escalating at +1 percentage point per year. The county bears zero capital risk, zero construction risk, and zero technology risk.
A Community Feasibility Study authorized in Q3 2026 puts Phase Initial Commercial Operations at Q3 2028 — nine years before the worst-case landfill closure. Phase Expanded (1,200 TPD, full county coverage) reaches full operations by Q3 2031, six years before closure. No other available pathway achieves this timeline. A new landfill in Johnson County — acknowledged in the county's own SWMP as an "unlikely" prospect — takes 10–15 years to permit.
Circular Royalty payments begin 13 months after the corresponding TMC Fee payment, on a rolling monthly basis.
This is not an annual switch-on event — each TMC Fee payment generates a corresponding Circular Royalty payment 13 months later.
At steady state, the Circular Royalty is designed to exceed the TMC Fee on a per-ton basis.
| Parameter | Value | Source / Status |
|---|---|---|
| Addressable feedstock | ~1,200 TPD · ~438,000 TPY | SWMP 2024 / per-capita model EST |
| Current disposal cost (FWDC) | $42/ton | EREF 2024 Kansas avg + WM premium EST |
| TMC Fee (base) | $100/ton · 2.5%/yr escalation | Carbotura standard (floor operative) |
| Gross cost displacement | $6.1M/yr (Initial) → $18.4M/yr (Expanded) | FWDC × annual TPY EST |
| Circular Royalty — Year 1 | $0 (pre-royalty period, Months 1–12) | COA structure — 13-month lag applies |
| Royalty lag | 13 months — rolling monthly, not annual | Proposal EIR Input Block (locked) |
| Net position — Year 2 (Phase Initial) | +$8.3M/year net positive | Royalty + FWDC − TMC EST |
| Net position — Year 30 (Phase Expanded) | +$57.9M/year · ~$450M cumulative | Proposal EIR Input Block EST |
| County capital obligation | $0 — Carbotura BOO | COA structure |
| Hard deadline — WM landfill closure | 2037 (worst case) | MARC/Burns & McDonnell Jan 2024 VERIFIED |
| Procurement authorization deadline | Q3 2026 (Community Feasibility Study) | Derived: 2037 − 24mo COD − 3mo study |
| Phase Initial COD | T0 + 24 months (~Q3 2028) | Carbotura standard deployment schedule |
| First Circular Royalty payment | T0 + 37 months (~Q4 2029) | 13-month lag from Phase Initial COD |
| Direct employment (Full Expansion) | 144 FTE · 504 total supported | Carbotura standard parameters EST |
The binding irreversibility instrument is the Shawnee Special Use Permit for the WM Johnson County Landfill — currently issued for one year only (November 2024, 7-0 vote) due to unresolved methane flaring, blasting operations, and odor complaints against the standard 4-year term. If Shawnee declines to renew this permit, the landfill suspends operations immediately, the county has no contracted alternative, and whatever ACM construction is underway at that point remains the only future infrastructure — but is not yet operational.
If T0 slips from Q3 2026 to Q3 2028, Phase Initial COD moves from Q3 2028 to Q3 2030 — reducing the pre-closure operational buffer from 7 years to 5 years. If T0 slips to Q3 2030, Phase Expanded does not reach full operations until Q3 2035, leaving only 2 years of full-scale ACM infrastructure before the worst-case landfill closure. A T0 after Q1 2033 means Phase Expanded is not operational before the 2037 closure date.
Residual stream disposal (estimated <2% of total, <$1M/year at full expansion) continues via existing HHW pathways and does not materially affect the analysis.