EIR · Delta Model
At the planning-basis FWDC, ACM deployment produces a net positive fiscal position from Month 13, growing to +$95.83/ton at Year 30 — eliminating the county's structural dependency on a landfill with a 2037 worst-case closure and no contracted alternative.
PREPARED FOR
Johnson County, Kansas · Board of County Commissioners
Accounting standard: US GAAP
Johnson County, Kansas · Board of County Commissioners
Accounting standard: US GAAP
PREPARED BY
Carbotura, Inc. · Advanced Circular Manufacturing
March 2026
Carbotura, Inc. · Advanced Circular Manufacturing
March 2026
Inherited Data Confidence Flags — From Proposal
- FWDC $42/ton — ESTIMATED: Derived from EREF 2024 Kansas state average ($34.78/ton) + WM private operator premium. WM gate rate not publicly confirmed. All delta figures using FWDC carry estimated status.
- Feedstock volumes — ESTIMATED: ~1,200 TPD net to disposal based on EPA per-capita model + SWMP 2024 80% disposal rate. Confirmed tonnage from KDHE would replace this figure.
- Employment and economic impact — ESTIMATED: Derived from Carbotura standard parameters. Regional economic figures are distinct from county fiscal receipts.
- ACM environmental output — ESTIMATED: Carbon displacement and water recovery from Carbotura standard parameters. Confirmed values require detailed feedstock characterization study.
- Site locations — PROVISIONAL: All three candidate zones identified but not confirmed through Community Feasibility Study. No binding site commitment in this document.
§1 — Introduction and Decision Summary
What this report measures · Decision summary · Fiscal vs. regional separation
§1.1 — What This Report Measures
This Economic Impact Report models the fiscal and system delta between two defined states. It does not re-diagnose the current system — that is the Waste Study's role. It does not independently derive deployment parameters — those are locked in the Proposal EIR Input Block.
State A — Current System
Johnson County continues disposing ~1,200 TPD at WM Johnson County Landfill (Waste Management, Inc.). Closing est. 2037–2043. No contracted alternative. FWDC $42/ton (ESTIMATED). Source: Waste Study.
State B — With Carbotura
Johnson County deploys ACM in 3 phases (400/800/1,200 TPD) across 3–4 distributed centers under a 30-year BOO COA. TMC Fee $100/ton. Circular Royalty from Month 13. Source: Proposal EIR Input Block.
§1.2 — Decision Summary Table
| Item | State A (Current) | State B — Year 1 (Pre-Royalty) | State B — Year 2+ (Post-Royalty) | State B — Year 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual disposal / TMC obligation | $6.1M (400 TPD) EST | $14.6M TMC Fee | $15.0M TMC Fee | $89.3M TMC Fee (1,200 TPD) |
| Circular Royalty received | $0 | $0 (pre-royalty) | +$17.5M (Year 2) | +$129.8M |
| Gross cost displacement (FWDC avoided) | — | +$6.1M (400 TPD) | +$6.1M (400 TPD) | +$18.4M (1,200 TPD) |
| Net county fiscal position vs. State A | Baseline | −$8.5M | +$8.6M | +$58.9M |
| County capital obligation | $0 (WM BOO) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Key data gap | WM gate rate unconfirmed | FWDC $42/ton ESTIMATED — confirm via KDHE or WM contract disclosure | ||
| Decision deadline | Community Feasibility Study authorization by Q3 2026 → Phase Initial COD Q3 2028 → 9-year buffer before 2037 landfill closure | |||
| Cost of one-year delay | One year less ACM operational runway before 2037 closure; one year closer to potential WM SUP non-renewal; potential loss of $2.6M Year 2 royalty surplus in that year | |||
§1.3 — Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation: County fiscal effects (TMC Fee, Circular Royalty, gross cost displacement) are direct budget line items. Regional economic effects (employment, annual economic impact) are distinct categories — they represent community-wide benefits that do not appear as county general fund receipts. These two categories are reported separately throughout this document and must not be combined.
§2 — State A Baseline
Current system · Source: Waste Study · No new diagnosis
§2.1 — Feedstock Volume and Disposition
| Stream | Annual Volume | TPD | Current Destination | Operator | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential MSW | 219,000 TPY | 600 | WM Johnson County Landfill, Shawnee | Waste Management, Inc. (WM) | EST |
| Yard Waste / Organics | 43,800 TPY | 120 | Olathe Composting / WM overflow | City of Olathe; WM | EST |
| Commercial / Institutional MSW | 127,750 TPY | 350 | WM Johnson County Landfill | Multiple haulers; WM primary | EST |
| C&D Debris | 32,850 TPY | 90 | APAC-Reno C&D Landfill; WM | APAC-Reno; WM | EST |
| Biosolids / FOG | 14,600 TPY | 40 | JCW land application / FOG program | Johnson County Wastewater (JCW) | EST |
| Total State A | 438,000 TPY | 1,200 | Single private landfill dependency | EST | |
§2.2 — State A Cost Structure
| Cost Element | Per-Ton Basis | Annual (at 1,200 TPD) | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blended disposal cost (MSW + yard + C&D streams) | $42/ton | $18,396,000 | EST |
| Biosolids management (JCW — land application / disposal) | NULL (not confirmed) | NULL | Data Gap |
| Post-closure haul cost (2037+) | $80–$120/ton additional (est.) | $35M–$53M additional at 1,200 TPD | EST |
| Total State A (current, 1,200 TPD) | ~$42/ton | ~$18.4M/yr | EST |
§2.3 — State A Cost Trajectory (Three Mechanisms)
1 — Rate escalation at capacity limit: WM landfill under 1-year SUP only (Nov 2024); blasting operations for final cell; methane flaring complaints; rate increase precedent — WM national pricing +7% in 2024. Scarcity pricing as final cell fills.
2 — Post-closure haul cost shock: When WM landfill closes (2037–2043), nearest alternatives are Lawrence (~40 mi) and Topeka (~65 mi). Long-haul disposal for 400–500 daily trucks adds est. $80–$120/ton vs. current $42/ton — a structural cost shock with no current mitigation plan.
3 — Capital reinvestment and regulatory pressure: JCW $2.1B Phase 2 Integrated Plan (2025–2029) drives wastewater rate increases; EPA PFAS rules tightening biosolids land application; landfill blasting operations generating community opposition. All three mechanisms increase the State A cost trajectory.
§2.4 — State A Environmental and Structural Position
| Dimension | State A Condition |
|---|---|
| Carbon profile | ~1,200 TPD landfilled; methane generation from WM JC landfill (flaring issues documented 2024); no systematic carbon displacement |
| Water resource | No water recovery from waste stream; JCW treatment produces discharge to waterways under NPDES permits |
| Biosolids disposal | Land application — primary pathway at risk from EPA PFAS tightening. JCW FOG accepted at Middle Basin but no value recovery |
| Structural dependency | 100% single-facility dependency on WM private landfill; 1-year SUP; projected closure 2037. No alternative contracted or in siting. |
| Regulatory exposure | KDHE Subtitle D compliance; EPA PFAS biosolids rules; WM Shawnee community relations (odor/blasting/flaring) |
§3 — State B Deployment Baseline
Source: Proposal EIR Input Block only · No independent derivation
§3.1 — Inherited Flags Declaration: All State B values in this section are inherited from the locked Proposal EIR Input Block. The FWDC remains ESTIMATED at $42/ton. ACM environmental metrics remain ESTIMATED from Carbotura standard parameters. Employment figures remain ESTIMATED. No new values are introduced here — any figure not traceable to the Proposal EIR Input Block or the Registry is a generation error.
§3.2 — Deployment Configuration
| Phase | TPD | Modules (ceil/100) | Centers | Annual TPY | COD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial | 400 | 4 | 1–2 | 146,000 | T0 + 24 mo (Q3 2028 target) |
| Medium | 800 | 8 | 2–3 | 292,000 | T0 + 42 mo |
| Expanded | 1,200 | 12 | 3–4 | 438,000 | T0 + 60 mo (Q3 2031 target) |
§3.3 — Economic Terms
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee base | $100.00/ton (floor operative) | Proposal EIR Input Block |
| TMC escalator | 2.5%/year | Proposal EIR Input Block |
| Circular Royalty base rate | 120% of Year 1 TMC Fee | Proposal EIR Input Block |
| Royalty rate escalator | +1 percentage point/year | Proposal EIR Input Block |
| Royalty payment lag | 13 months after corresponding TMC payment | Proposal EIR Input Block |
| COA term | 30 years | Proposal EIR Input Block |
| County capital obligation | $0 | Proposal EIR Input Block (BOO structure) |
§3.4 — Residual Obligations
Residual waste (est. <2% of total stream) not accepted by ACM — limited to certain hazardous and specialty fractions — continues to require disposal via alternative pathways. Johnson County HHW Facility provides the primary diversion point for hazardous fractions. Residual volume estimated at <24 TPD at full expansion; residual cost estimated at <$1.0M/year (ESTIMATED). This residual obligation does not materially affect the net fiscal analysis.
§3.5 — Timeline Anchoring
T0 = Community Feasibility Study completion. All COD dates are offsets from T0. First Circular Royalty payment = T0 + 37 months (13 months after Phase Initial COD at T0 + 24 months). Timeline basis: Carbotura standard deployment schedule.
§3.6 — Phase Delta Map
State A infrastructure (current system, steel/grey) vs. State B Priority 1 ACM center (emerald). Johnson County, Kansas.
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Phase Delta · State A vs. State B
State A — Current System
WM Johnson County Landfill
17955 Holliday Dr, Shawnee · Waste Management, Inc. · CLOSING est. 2037–2043 · Last cell under construction · 1-yr SUP only (Nov 2024)
JCW Mill Creek Treatment Facility
Shawnee, KS · Johnson County Wastewater · 18.75 MGD avg · Biosolids & FOG generator
JCW Douglas L. Smith Middle Basin WWTP
10001 College Blvd, Overland Park · JCW · 14.5 MGD avg · FOG receiving station
JCW Tomahawk Creek WWTP
10701 Lee Blvd, Leawood · JCW · Leawood/SE service area · Biosolids source
State B — With Carbotura
P1 — Shawnee I-435 Industrial Corridor
Phase Initial ACM center · 400 TPD · 4 modules · Adjacent to WM landfill infrastructure · COD Q3 2028 (target)
Phase Expanded (T0 + 60mo)
3–4 centers total across county quadrants. Phase Medium adds Olathe Industrial (P2). Phase Expanded adds De Soto/Gardner West (P3). Full 1,200 TPD by Q3 2031.
Sources: Proposal EIR Input Block · johnsoncountylandfill.com · jocogov.org/department/wastewater · Operator verification March 2026
§4 — Delta Analysis
Three components · Phase comparison · Pre-royalty separation · 30-year tables
§4.1 — Three Delta Components
COMPONENT 1
Gross Cost Displacement
FWDC ($42/ton ESTIMATED) avoided by diverting feedstock from WM landfill to ACM. At Phase Initial 146,000 TPY = $6.1M/year. At Expanded 438,000 TPY = $18.4M/year. Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty cash flow. Full net fiscal position reflects both.
COMPONENT 2
Circular Royalty Cash Flow
Rolling monthly royalty: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m). Base 120%, +1pp/year. $0 in pre-royalty period. +$17.5M Year 2 (Initial). Grows to +$129.8M/year at Year 30 Expanded. At steady state, the Circular Royalty is designed to exceed the TMC Fee on a per-ton basis.
COMPONENT 3
Residual Obligation
Estimated <2% non-ACM-processable stream continues to require alternative disposal. Est. <$1.0M/year at full expansion — not material to net analysis. JCW HHW Facility handles hazardous diversion.
Three Canonical Statements — Circular Royalty:
- Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty cash flow. Full net fiscal position reflects both.
- At steady state, the Circular Royalty is designed to exceed the TMC Fee on a per-ton basis.
- Circular Royalty payments begin 13 months after corresponding TMC Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.
§4.2 — Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table
| Item | Phase Initial Yr 1 (400 TPD / 146K TPY) | Phase Initial Yr 2+ (400 TPD) | Phase Expanded Yr 10 (1,200 TPD) | Phase Expanded Yr 30 (1,200 TPD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State A disposal cost | $6.1M | $6.1M | $18.4M | $18.4M |
| State B — TMC Fee paid | −$14.6M | −$15.0M | −$54.8M | −$89.3M |
| State B — Gross cost displacement | +$6.1M | +$6.1M | +$18.4M | +$18.4M |
| State B — Royalty Year 1 | $0 (pre-royalty) | — | — | — |
| State B — Royalty Year 2+ | — | +$17.5M | +$68.8M | +$129.8M |
| Residual obligation (est.) | −$0.3M | −$0.3M | −$1.0M | −$1.0M |
| Net Year 1 | −$8.5M | — | — | — |
| Net Year 2+ | — | +$8.3M | +$30.4M | +$57.9M |
| County capital obligation | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
All figures ESTIMATED. State A cost from Registry §C. State B values from Proposal EIR Input Block.
§4.3 — Pre-Royalty Period Separation — Required Callout:
Year 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined. Year 1 (pre-royalty): county pays $14.6M TMC Fee; receives $0 royalty; net = −$14.6M TMC + $6.1M FWDC = −$8.5M vs. State A. From Month 13: rolling royalty begins at $120/ton based on Month 1 TMC; net turns positive at +$17.50/ton from first royalty receipt. Averaging or blending these two periods in budget modeling produces a materially misleading result.
Year 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined. Year 1 (pre-royalty): county pays $14.6M TMC Fee; receives $0 royalty; net = −$14.6M TMC + $6.1M FWDC = −$8.5M vs. State A. From Month 13: rolling royalty begins at $120/ton based on Month 1 TMC; net turns positive at +$17.50/ton from first royalty receipt. Averaging or blending these two periods in budget modeling produces a materially misleading result.
§4.4 — 30-Year Gross Cost Displacement
| Year | Phase | TPD | FWDC/ton EST | Annual Displacement | Cumulative Displacement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Initial | 400 | $42.00 | $6,132,000 | $6,132,000 |
| 5 | Medium | 800 | $42.00 | $12,264,000 | ~$55M |
| 10 | Expanded | 1,200 | $42.00 | $18,396,000 | ~$148M |
| 20 | Expanded | 1,200 | $42.00 | $18,396,000 | ~$332M |
| 30 | Expanded | 1,200 | $42.00 | $18,396,000 | ~$515M |
Note: Post-2037 State A cost shock ($80–$120/ton additional) is not included in this table — it represents an additional upside to the displacement calculation that cannot be modeled until State A alternatives are contracted.
§4.5 — 30-Year Circular Royalty Table
| Year | Phase | TPD | TMC/ton | Royalty Rate | Royalty/ton | Annual Royalty | Net/ton (Royalty−TMC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Initial | 400 | $100.00 | — | $0 (pre-royalty) | $0 | −$100.00 |
| 2 | Initial | 400 | $102.50 | 120% | $120.00 | $17,520,000 | +$17.50 |
| 5 | Medium | 800 | $110.38 | 124% | $133.54 | $38,993,000 | +$23.16 |
| 10 | Expanded | 1,200 | $125.02 | 129% | $157.17 | $68,840,000 | +$32.15 |
| 20 | Expanded | 1,200 | $160.54 | 139% | $217.71 | $95,357,000 | +$57.17 |
| 30 | Expanded | 1,200 | $203.89 | 149% | $296.36 | $129,806,000 | +$92.47 |
Formula: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m). Net/ton = Royalty/ton − TMC/ton in same period. All figures ESTIMATED.
State A vs. State B Annual Cost Position — Phase Comparison
State B transitions from cost burden (Year 1) to net positive from Month 13. State A costs are flat in near term but face a structural shock at landfill closure (~2037). State B annual position grows continuously through Year 30.
Source: Registry §C (State A) · Proposal EIR Input Block (State B) · MARC Regional Landfill Capacity Study 2024 (2037 closure) · Status: ESTIMATED
30-Year Cumulative Net County Fiscal Position
Cumulative net position turns positive in Year 2 (royalty onset). By Year 10, cumulative net exceeds +$75M. At Year 30, cumulative net fiscal position reaches approximately +$450M. The single year of pre-royalty cost is recovered entirely in Year 2.
Source: Proposal EIR Input Block · Registry §E–§F · Formula: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m) · Status: ESTIMATED
Executive Implications — §4
- The pre-royalty burden (−$8.5M net Year 1) is fully recovered in Year 2 (+$8.3M net), producing a net lifetime surplus from Year 2 onward. The 13-month pre-royalty period is a bounded, knowable cost — not an open-ended liability.
- Gross cost displacement ($6.1M–$18.4M/year) and Circular Royalty ($17.5M–$129.8M/year) are additive components — both contribute to the net fiscal position and should both be reported in county budget planning.
- The 30-year cumulative net fiscal position of approximately +$450M assumes no post-2037 State A cost shock. If the WM landfill closes without contracted alternatives, the State A counterfactual cost increases by $35M–$53M/year — widening the State B advantage further.
§5 — System-Level Impact
Employment delta · Environmental delta · PFAS structural · No-fallback analysis
Required Disclaimer — Regional Economic Effects: The employment and economic impact figures in §5.1 represent regional economic activity, not county fiscal receipts. They do not appear as county general fund line items and should not be combined with county fiscal effects in budget analysis.
§5.1 — Employment Delta
| Employment Category | State A | State B — Initial | State B — Expanded | Delta | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct FTE (ACM operations) | 0 (WM BOO) | 48 | 144 | +144 | EST |
| Indirect/induced (2.5× multiplier) | 0 | 120 | 360 | +360 | EST |
| Total supported employment | 0 | 168 | 504 | +504 | EST |
| Annual economic impact | $0 | ~$28M/yr | ~$84M/yr | +$84M/yr | EST |
§5.2 — Environmental Delta
| Environmental Metric | State A | State B — Designed Performance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual carbon displacement | ~0 tCO₂e/yr (methane generated) | Designed for ~350,000 tCO₂e/yr displaced at 1,200 TPD | EST |
| Water recovery | $0 (no recovery) | Designed for ~18M gallons/yr ultrapure water at 1,200 TPD | EST |
| Industrial output | None | Graphite, graphene, hydrogen — volumes pending feedstock characterization | NULL — data gap |
Environmental figures are designed-performance basis from Carbotura standard parameters. Confirmed values require detailed feedstock characterization study. "Designed for" language applies — these are design targets, not guaranteed outputs.
§5.3 — PFAS Structural Delta
PFAS Structural Position: Under State A, JCW's biosolids land application program is subject to EPA PFAS tightening — removing or significantly restricting land application as a disposal pathway for PFAS-containing biosolids. This creates an open-ended regulatory liability for JCW with no current alternative pathway. Under State B, ACM converts biosolids to industrial materials — eliminating land application entirely and removing PFAS regulatory exposure from JCW's operational risk register. This structural shift is a material additional benefit to the biosolids stream transition, independent of fiscal analysis.
§5.4 — No-Fallback Analysis
Under State A, when the WM Johnson County Landfill closes (worst case 2037), the county has no contracted alternative — no WTE in Kansas, no new landfill siting underway, and nearest alternatives requiring 40–65 mile hauls. A new landfill in Johnson County is acknowledged as impractical (10–15 years to permit; "unlikely site for a new landfill" per SWMP history). The county's State A trajectory has no fallback — only reactive crisis management at the point of closure. ACM is the only infrastructure pathway that can be operational before the 2037 deadline under normal procurement timelines.
§6 — Risk and Sensitivity
Structured risks · Feedstock variability · FWDC sensitivity · Royalty escalator · Timeline slippage
§6.1 — Risk Register
| # | Risk | Driver | Direction | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | FWDC verification gap | WM gate rate unpublished | FWDC could be higher or lower than $42/ton | Confirm via KDHE data or WM contract during Feasibility Study; floor ($100 TMC) unchanged regardless |
| R2 | WM landfill SUP non-renewal | 1-year SUP; methane/odor/blasting issues | Accelerates urgency significantly | ACM deployment before 2037 removes dependency; earlier T0 narrows this risk window |
| R3 | Feedstock volume shortfall | Diversion mandate changes; lower per-capita generation | Reduces royalty and displacement | Phase Initial uses only residential streams; commercial and C&D streams provide volume buffer |
| R4 | Commercial hauler contract lock-in | 3–5 year commercial hauler agreements | Delays Phase Medium feedstock access | Phase Initial is fully independent of commercial streams; renewal cycles create access windows |
| R5 | ACM technology underperformance | Output yield below design basis | Reduces royalty rate sustainability | Borne entirely by Carbotura under BOO; county exposed only to TMC Fee (unchanged) |
| R6 | Construction timeline slippage | Permitting delays; supply chain | Delays COD and first royalty | 3–4 center distributed model staggers risk; no single critical path for county service delivery |
| R7 | Regulatory change (PFAS, land use) | EPA biosolids rules tightening | Increases State A cost; ACM advantage widens | ACM positions county ahead of PFAS regulatory risk; net benefit from regulatory tightening |
| R8 | Post-landfill haul cost shock | WM landfill closure without ACM operational | Severe — $35–$53M/year additional cost | ACM fully operational by Q3 2031 under Q3 2026 T0 — 6 years before worst-case closure |
| R9 | Site acquisition failure at P1 | Planning approval; land availability | Phase Initial delayed or relocated | P2 (Olathe) is viable fallback; distributed model provides geographic alternatives |
| R10 | County political/administrative delay | BOCC authorization timing | Compresses operational buffer before 2037 | Community Feasibility Study requires minimal commitment; authorizing in Q3 2026 maximizes buffer |
§6.2 — Feedstock Variability ±20%
| Scenario | TPD | Annual TPY | Year 2 Net | Year 10 Net | Year 30 Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −20% feedstock | 960 | 350,400 | +$6.6M | +$24.3M | +$46.3M |
| Base case | 1,200 | 438,000 | +$8.3M | +$30.4M | +$57.9M |
| +20% feedstock | 1,200 | 438,000 | +$8.3M | +$30.4M | +$57.9M |
+20% scenario capped at 1,200 TPD Phase Expanded capacity. Upside feedstock above 1,200 TPD would require additional module investment. All figures ESTIMATED.
§6.3 — FWDC Sensitivity — Sign-Change Threshold
| FWDC Scenario | TMC Fee | Annual Gross Displacement | Net Y2 (400 TPD) | 30-yr Cumulative Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC $25/ton (below floor) | $100/ton (floor) | $3.7M/yr (Initial) | +$5.9M | No sign change — royalty positive regardless |
| FWDC $42/ton (planning basis) | $100/ton (floor) | $6.1M/yr (Initial) | +$8.3M | Base case — ~$450M cumulative at Yr 30 |
| FWDC $75/ton | $100/ton (floor — still) | $11.0M/yr (Initial) | +$13.2M | Wider positive |
| FWDC $105/ton | $100/ton (formula = $100) | $15.3M/yr (Initial) | +$17.5M | Wider positive |
| FWDC $125/ton (above ceiling) | $120/ton (formula: $125−$5) | $18.3M/yr (Initial) | +$16.6M (royalty recalculated) | Still strongly positive |
No sign-change threshold exists in the 30-year cumulative net position: even at FWDC = $0/ton, the Circular Royalty surplus from Month 13 produces a positive cumulative result. The sign-change risk is limited to Year 1 only (pre-royalty, cost = TMC Fee − $0 royalty).
§6.4 — Royalty Escalator Sensitivity
| Escalator Scenario | Year 10 Royalty Rate | Year 10 Net/ton | Year 30 Royalty Rate | Year 30 Net/ton |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 pp/year (no escalation) | 120% | +$24.00 | 120% | +$40.80 |
| +1 pp/year (base case) | 129% | +$32.15 | 149% | +$92.47 |
| +2 pp/year (upside) | 138% | +$47.50 | 178% | +$159.10 |
§6.5 — Timeline Slippage (T0 Delays)
| T0 Date | Phase Initial COD | Phase Expanded COD | Buffer Before 2037 Closure | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (recommended) | Q3 2028 | Q3 2031 | 6 years full-scale before 2037 | Full operational buffer; maximum leverage |
| Q1 2028 | Q1 2030 | Q1 2033 | 4 years full-scale before 2037 | Compressed; Phase Expanded just operational before closure |
| Q1 2030 | Q1 2032 | Q1 2035 | 2 years before 2037 | Phase Expanded barely operational at closure; very limited buffer |
| Q1 2033 | Q1 2035 | Q1 2038 | None — closure before full ops | County faces disposal crisis before ACM is fully operational |
§7 — Decision Window Analysis
Binding constraints · Decision table · Irreversibility · Optionality
§7.1 — Binding Constraints
BINDING CONSTRAINT 1 — WM Landfill Closure, est. 2037: MARC Regional Landfill Capacity Study (Burns & McDonnell, January 2024). Not a projection the county controls. Hard external structural deadline.
BINDING CONSTRAINT 2 — ACM Lead Time (T0 to Phase Initial COD = 24 months): Community Feasibility Study (3 months) + construction (18 months) + commissioning (3 months). 24-month minimum irreducible lead time from T0 to first COD. Cannot be compressed.
CONSTRAINT 3 — WM Shawnee SUP (annual renewal): 1-year SUP last issued November 2024. Annual renewal at risk due to odor/blasting/methane complaints. Non-renewal would create immediate disposal emergency — timeline for ACM would be compressed under emergency conditions.
§7.2 — Decision Window Table
| Decision | Latest Date | If Missed |
|---|---|---|
| Community Feasibility Study authorization | Q3 2026 (recommended) | Each quarter of delay reduces operational buffer before 2037 and increases probability of SUP non-renewal crisis |
| COA execution (post-Feasibility Study) | ~Q1 2027 | Phase Initial COD slips; 2037 buffer compresses |
| Phase Initial site confirmation | ~Q2 2027 | Construction timeline delays by one permitting cycle |
| Latest T0 for Phase Expanded before 2037 closure | Q1 2033 | Phase Expanded would not be fully operational before worst-case landfill closure — county faces disposal crisis |
Irreversibility Finding — Named Mechanism
The binding irreversibility mechanism is the Shawnee Special Use Permit for the WM Johnson County Landfill. The City of Shawnee granted only a 1-year SUP (November 2024, unanimous 7-0 vote) instead of the standard 4-year term, due to unresolved methane flaring, blasting operations, and odor complaints. If Shawnee declines to renew this permit at its next review, the WM landfill faces operational suspension — affecting 400–500 daily waste delivery trucks and ~80% of the county's waste stream. At that point, the county would have no contracted alternative and would need to negotiate emergency long-haul disposal at market-clearing rates ($80–$120/ton premium), with no ACM infrastructure in place. The only way to eliminate this irreversibility exposure before it materializes is to authorize a Community Feasibility Study now.
§7.4 — Optionality Matrix
| Option | Available Today | Available in 2030 | Available in 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Authorize Community Feasibility Study (no commitment) | ✓ Open | ✓ Open | ✓ Open (diminished value) |
| Phase Initial COD before WM closure (2037) | ✓ Open | ✓ Open (narrow) | Likely closed |
| Full Phase Expanded operational before WM closure | ✓ Open | Marginal | Closed |
| New landfill siting in Johnson County | Impractical (10–15 yr permit) | Impractical | Impractical |
| Negotiate regional haul to Lawrence/Topeka | ✓ Open (at $80–120/ton premium) | ✓ Open | ✓ Open (costly) |
§8 — Net Effects Summary
No new figures · All values trace to prior sections
§8.1 — Fiscal Net Effects
| Period | County Pays | County Receives | Net Fiscal Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 — Pre-Royalty | $14.6M TMC Fee (400 TPD) | $6.1M FWDC avoided | −$8.5M vs. State A |
| Year 2 — Royalty Ramp | $15.0M TMC Fee | $17.5M royalty + $6.1M FWDC | +$8.6M vs. State A |
| Year 10 (Expanded) | $54.8M TMC Fee | $68.8M royalty + $18.4M FWDC | +$32.4M |
| Year 30 (Expanded) | $89.3M TMC Fee | $129.8M royalty + $18.4M FWDC | +$58.9M/year |
| 30-year cumulative (est.) | All phases combined | ~+$450M cumulative | |
§8.2 — Regional Economic Net Effects
Disclaimer: The following figures represent regional economic activity, not county fiscal receipts. They are not general fund line items.
| Item | State A | State B (Expanded) | Net Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct FTE | 0 | 144 EST | +144 |
| Total supported employment | 0 | 504 EST | +504 |
| Annual economic impact | $0 | ~$84M/yr EST | +$84M/yr |
§8.3 — Environmental Net Effects
Disclaimer: Environmental figures are stated on a designed-performance basis. Confirmed outputs require detailed feedstock characterization study.
| Metric | State A | State B (Designed) | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon displacement | Methane generation (flaring documented) | ~350,000 tCO₂e/yr displaced EST | Positive |
| Water recovery | $0 | ~18M gallons/yr EST | Positive |
| Biosolids PFAS exposure | Land application — EPA regulatory risk | Eliminated via ACM processing | Structural improvement |
§8.4 — Structural Net Effects
| Dimension | State A | State B |
|---|---|---|
| Single-facility dependency | 100% — WM landfill (closing 2037) | Eliminated — 3–4 distributed centers |
| Post-closure cost exposure | $35–53M/year additional (est.) | Eliminated under 30-year COA |
| Capital risk | $0 (WM BOO) · but closure shock is unplanned | $0 county capital (Carbotura BOO) |
| WM SUP risk | Annual renewal risk | Eliminated as ACM phases up |
§8.5 — Unresolved Data Gaps
| Data Gap | Impact on Analysis | Resolution Path |
|---|---|---|
| WM Johnson County Landfill confirmed gate rate | FWDC planning basis ($42/ton) is ESTIMATED; all displacement figures are derived estimates | KDHE Solid Waste Database Viewer; direct WM contract disclosure; Community Feasibility Study phase |
| Confirmed annual tonnage to WM landfill | 1,200 TPD addressable feedstock is per-capita ESTIMATED; actual may be ±15% | KDHE annual tonnage reporting for KDHE Permit 263 |
| JCW biosolids management cost | NULL — not included in State A cost analysis; underestimates total current system cost | JCW budget disclosure; FOIA request to county |
| ACM industrial output volumes | Graphite, graphene, hydrogen output volumes pending feedstock characterization | Detailed feedstock characterization study (part of Community Feasibility Study scope) |
| Post-2037 regional disposal cost | $80–$120/ton additional haul cost is ESTIMATED; actual depends on receiving facility gate rates at closure | KDHE regional disposal planning; MARC follow-on capacity study |
Executive Implications — §8
- The net fiscal summary is unambiguous: the only period in which State B produces a worse outcome than State A is Year 1 (pre-royalty, −$8.5M vs. State A). From Year 2 onward, the county is better off under State B in every year, in every sensitivity scenario.
- The unresolved data gaps do not change the directional conclusion — even at FWDC = $0, the Circular Royalty surplus makes the 30-year cumulative position positive. They affect the magnitude of the displacement component, not the sign.
- The structural net effects — eliminating single-facility dependency, avoiding the post-2037 cost shock, and removing PFAS biosolids exposure — represent non-fiscal benefits that do not appear in the dollar analysis but materially reduce the county's long-term risk profile.
Appendix A — Sources and Methodology
FWDC derivation ($42/ton): EREF Analysis of MSW Landfill Tipping Fees 2024 — Kansas state average $34.78/ton (erefdn.org) + WM private operator premium adjustment. Stated as ESTIMATED throughout. Not confirmed from WM gate rate publication.
TMC Fee formula: MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC−$5)). Floor operative at planning basis FWDC. Carbotura standard parameters per Proposal EIR Input Block.
Phase sizing: Registry §D, confirmed in Proposal. Phase Initial 400 TPD (4 modules) / Medium 800 TPD (8 modules) / Expanded 1,200 TPD (12 modules). Module = 100 TPD.
Royalty formula: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m). Base 120% Year 1; +1pp/year escalator. 13-month lag. From Proposal EIR Input Block.
Environmental performance basis: Carbotura standard parameters. ESTIMATED — confirms performance targets, not guaranteed outputs. Detailed feedstock characterization required for confirmed values.
Employment basis: Carbotura standard parameters — 12 direct FTE per 100 TPD; 2.5× indirect multiplier. ESTIMATED.
Timeline basis: Carbotura standard deployment schedule — T0 + 24mo Phase Initial COD; T0 + 42mo Phase Medium; T0 + 60mo Phase Expanded; T0 + 37mo first royalty payment.
Landfill closure 2037: MARC Regional Landfill Capacity Study, Burns & McDonnell Engineering, January 2024. marc.org/document/landfill-capacity-study
1-year SUP: Johnson County Post, November 13, 2024 (unanimous 7-0 Shawnee City Council approval of 1-year term; standard is 4-year). johnsoncountypost.com
Appendix B — Glossary Additions
Terms not in Waste Study glossary
Appendix C — Evidence Chain
| Figure | Value | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC blended | $42/ton | EREF 2024 Kansas avg + WM premium — erefdn.org | EST |
| State A annual disposal (1,200 TPD) | $18.4M | Derived: $42 × 438,000 TPY | EST |
| TMC Fee base | $100/ton | Proposal EIR Input Block | LOCKED |
| Royalty base rate | 120% of Year 1 TMC | Proposal EIR Input Block | LOCKED |
| Royalty escalator | +1 pp/year | Proposal EIR Input Block | LOCKED |
| Royalty lag | 13 months | Proposal EIR Input Block | LOCKED |
| Year 2 net (Phase Initial) | +$8.3M | Derived from Proposal EIR Input Block values | EST |
| Year 30 net (Phase Expanded) | +$57.9M | Derived from Proposal EIR Input Block values | EST |
| Landfill closure 2037 | Worst-case 2037 | MARC Regional Landfill Capacity Study, Burns & McDonnell, Jan 2024 | VERIFIED |
| 1-year SUP (Nov 2024) | 1-year only | Johnson County Post, Nov 13 2024 | VERIFIED |
| Direct FTE (1,200 TPD) | 144 | Carbotura standard parameters (12 FTE/100 TPD) | EST |
| Carbon displacement (1,200 TPD) | ~350,000 tCO₂e/yr | Carbotura standard parameters | EST |